18. July 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

“Forecasts satisfy a deep psychological need that we live in a somewhat predictable and controllable world,” says Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. “Those are essential stories. People just find the truth” — that the future is unknowable — “too dissonant.”

Most economic forecasts are worth less than the paper they are printed on but fill a need for investors and policy wonks who need “data” to “make a decision” or spin an agenda.

As this article from TIME points out there are too many moving parts in world economics to project forward data points with any degree of accuracy on a consistent basis.

Use economic forecasts as input for your investment decisions at your peril.

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18. July 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Ever wondered how much your state nicks you for sin taxes and fuel?

 Look no further check out this data sheet by the TAX FOUNDATION.

Posted in Taxation | No Comments »