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Archive for 3. April 2009
Just How Bad Are US Unemployment Numbers?
3. April 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.
Not as bad as previous recessions, at least so far. For current initial jobless claims to reach the peaks of the 1970s and 1980s we would have to have initial jobs claims today of about 925,000, or 42% above current levels. By this measure of the employment situation, it seems unlikely we’ll get anywhere close to the recessionary levels of the 1970s and 1980s. According to Professor Mark Perry it’s amazing how much attention gets paid to the unadjusted jobless claims, and how little attention gets paid to how meaningless these data are without adjusting for the size of the labor force.
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