4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said now is the time to buy equities because investors are too fearful about the economy.“These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid,” he told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. “We’ve been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S.”

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Garot list the reasons for optimism on Seeking Alpha.

Check it out here

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Continuing a series of Internet TV shows I will be on the David Ingram show tonight, Wednesday, March 4, at 7pm Pacific time. Following up on lasts weeks show we will be covering things such as cross-border investment issues, tax, investing and more.

View the show live here. The show will be archived on this site under Seabank Media.

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Doug Kass, Real Money Commentator, makes the call: “I am also fully aware that most forecasts (of a stock and economic kind), especially at inflection points, are inaccurate or difficult to time, and I know that I am catching a falling knife, which is often an expensive and painful proposition. …..It is now time for me to adopt another variant view by espousing a more bullish opinion on the U.S.”

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Is that light at the end of the tunnel? Speaking at an investor conference in San Francisco yesterady, departing Yahoo CFO Blake Jorgensen said the company’s “class one” advertising inventory — the stuff that goes on Yahoo.com — has finally begun to stabilize.

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

As quoted by Peter Brimlow on CBS Marketwatch, “On Feb. 23, Prechter recommended covering the short market positons. Not all his reasons were comforting but one reason was the possibility of a “short and scary” bear market rally. ”

“The five-wave decline that started in October 2007 has now drawn the DJIA beneath its October 2000 low, down 50% in just 16 months. Some measures of investor pessimism have reached extreme levels, suggesting the decline has reached its latter stages. But it’s not over yet. The bond market’s verdict on the US bailout effort is resoundingly negative. Five year credit default swaps on U.S. Treasury debt reveal rapid deterioration in the perceived quality of U.S. credit. Gold and silver ended their respective countertrend rallies and are starting significant declines. Gold should come under $680 while silver should work its way below $8.39. The U.S. Dollar Index remains in an uptrend that is far from over.”

I agree with the bearish argument for golds in the short term per the gold chart posted earlier. Dan

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Leon Tuey, long-time market analyst and friend of mine made the observation to me in a recent conversation that he believes we are in the beginning phases of a bottoming process. He believes that, led by the airlines, a rolling bottom commenced in July, 2008 coincident with the peak in oil prices.  According to Leon, because of the economic cycle, stocks never go up  or down together and despite the widespread bearish outlook, the economy is showing signs of improvement.  Leon notes the bottoming action in  copper, oil and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index below. See charts below.

Also, Leon pointed out this week’s improved readings in US personal income, expenditures, and savings.

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

China is the leading market on a global basis according to Leon and despite a short term pullback over the past few sessions, China will be the leader in the recovery.

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Crude oil in recent weeks has been holding at support and (not shown here) offers upside potential relative to gold and precious metals.

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4. March 2009 by Dan Walkow, CFA, CMT.

Copper appears to have found support according to Leon Tuey.

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